税收激励对民营企业数字化转型的影响研究——来自增值税留抵退税政策的证据

Research on the Impact of Tax Incentives on the Digital Transformation of Private Enterprises: Evidence from the Reform of the VAT Credit Refund Policy

摘要:

在数字经济与实体经济深度融合背景下,税收政策作为宏观调控工具能否有效引导民营企业突破数字化转型中"不敢转、不愿转、不会转"的困境,是推动经济高质量发展的关键议题。文章基于2000—2023年沪深A股上市民营企业数据,以增值税留抵退税政策为准自然实验,运用双重差分模型实证检验税收激励对民营企业数字化转型的影响效果与作用机制。研究发现:(1)增值税留抵退税政策显著促进了民营企业数字化转型,该结论在平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验以及PSM-DID检验等稳健性检验后依然成立;(2)机制分析发现,增值税留抵退税政策通过缓解融资约束和降低供应链集中度等途径促进民营企业数字化转型;(3)异质性分析发现,增值税留抵退税政策作用效果在大规模企业、沿海省份、管制性行业群体中的作用效果更强。基于此,文章从税收政策工具视角揭示了民营企业数字化转型的激励路径,为深化"以税助企"改革、推动民营企业高质量发展提供了经验证据。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of deepening integration of the digital economy and the real economy, a critical issue in promoting high-quality economic development is whether tax policies as macroeconomic regulatory instruments, can effectively guide private enterprises to break through the predicament of "daring not to transform, unwilling to transforms, and unable to transform" in digital transformation. Based on the data of private enterprises listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets from 2000 to 2023, this paper adopts the VAT credit refund policy as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the difference-in-differences model to empirically test the impact effect and mechanism of tax incentives on the digital transformation of private enterprises. The research findings are as follows: (1) The VAT credit refund policy has significantly promoted the digital transformation of private enterprises. This conclusion remains valid after tests such as the parallel trend test, placebo test, and PSM-DID test. (2) In terms of mechanism analysis, the VAT credit refund policy promotes the digital transformation of private enterprises through measures such as alleviating financing constraints and reducing the concentration of supply chains. (3) In terms of heterogeneity analysis, the effect of the VAT credit refund policy is stronger in large-scale enterprises, coastal provinces, and regulated industry groups. Based on this, this paper reveals the incentive path for the digital transformation of the private economy from the perspective of tax policy instruments. This provides empirical evidence for deepening the reform of using taxation to support enterprises and promoting the high-quality development of private enterprises.